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نتائج انتخابات ايران وتأثيرها على المنطقة العربية
انتخابات إيران

نتئج الانتخابات الإيرانية اليوم ، هو تقرير صحفى مميز ،وتحت عنوان انتخابات ايران ستغير مستقبل الشرق الأوسط لعقود.. هكذا عنونت صحيفة “إندبندنت” البريطانية تقريرا حاولت فيه استكشاف مغزى الانتخابات الرئاسية التي يدلي فيها الإيرانيون اليوم الجمعة بأصواتهم والتي تشهد منافسة محمومة بين الرئيس الإصلاحي حسن روحاني، والمرشح المحافظ إبراهيم رئيسي المقرب من المرشد الأعلى للثورة الإيرانية آية الله علي خامنئي.

 

نتائج انتخابات ايران وتأثيرها على المنطقة العربية

وفى التقرير الصحفى المميز ،فقد ذكر التقرير أن الناخبين الإيرانيين منقسمون في أرائهم حول أهمية إنجاز الاتفاق النووي الذي أبرمه روحاني في العام 2015 مع القوى الست الكبرى العالمية، ودفاعه الصريح عن زيادة الانخراط السياسي والاقتصادي مع الغرب.

 

ومن التحليلات المميزة فى التقرير ،حيث أوضح التقرير أن روحاني يُنظر إليه على أنه المرشح المفضل للناخبين في البلد الشيعي، ربما لأن كافة الرؤوساء الإيرانيين قد فازوا بفترة ولاية ثانية منذ العام 1981، لكن ليس هذا مضمونا بأي حال من الأحوال. فـ روحاني سيسحم نتائج الانتخابات وبفارق كبير حال ضمن أكثر من 50% من الأصوات، ليعلن على إثرها المرشح الفائز من الجولة الأولى، كما فعل في العام 2013.

 

ومع ذلك، فإنه إذا ما اضطر المرشحان روحاني ورئيسي إلى الاحتكام إلى جولة إعادة، فمن الممكن أن يحتشد خصوم الرئيس المحافظين في محاولة للإطاحة به من منصبه.
والانتخابات الإيرانية مهمة ليس لكونها ستحدد مسار إيران في المستقبل، ولكن أيضا لأن الفائز فيها، وحلفائه في مجلس خبراء القيادة الإيرانية- الهيئة الأساسية في النظام الإيراني الذي عهد إليه الدستور مهمة تعيين وعزل قائد الثورة الإسلامية في إيرانء- سيكون لهم صوت مهم في اختيار المرشد الأعلى للثورة الإيرانية المقبل حال توفى خامنئي، 77 عاما والذي يشغل هذا المنصب منذ العام 1989، خلال الفترة الرئاسية القادمة.

 

وبرغم أن رؤية روحاني التي تميل لانخراط أكبر مع الغرب تخضع للتدقيق، ربما يتوقف مصيره وبقوة على التصورات العامة حول الاقتصاد الإيراني، ثاني أكبر اقتصاد في الشرق الأوسط.

 

وبرغم رفع العقوبات الدولية منذ التوقيع على الاتفاق النووي مع الدول الأعضاء الدائمين في مجلس الأمن الدولي التابع للأمم المتحدة، فإن الكثير من الإيرانيين لا يشعرون إلى الآن بتحسن كبير في مستويات معيشتهم كما كانوا يأملون من إصلاحات روحاني.

 

وبموجب بنود الاتفاق النووي، تم تخفيف بعض العقوبات الاقتصادية المفروضة على طهران، وهو ما يعد مهما جدا لبلد يمتلك رابع أكبر إحتياطي نفطي، وثاني أكبر مخزون للغاز الطبيعي في العالم. لكن العقوبات خفضت صادرات النفط الإيرانية لأكثر من مليون برميل يوميا تقريبا بعد العام 2012، ما تسبب في شلل الاقتصاد الوطني.
وبالتأكيد نما الاقتصاد الإيراني بنسبة 9% تقريبا في الربع الأخير من العام 2016، مع توقعات بنموه بنسبة 5% في العام الجاري، في حين انخفض التضخم بمعدلات مقبولة. ومع ذلك، تشهد القطاعات الصناعية الأساسية انكماشا ملحوظا، بما فيها البناء والتشييد. وحتى بعض الفوائد الاقتصادية التي عادت على طهران من الاتفاق النووي مع الغرب قد تلاشت مع تراجع أسعار النفط من أكثر من 100 دولار للبرميل إلى ما دون 50 دولار للبرميل.

 

وسيسعى المحافظون بكل قوة إلى عدم المساس بالمباديء الأساسية في السياسة الخارجية لإيران والتي لم تتغير تقريبا منذ العام 1979، ويشتمل ذلك على المعارضة الواسعة للسياسات الأمريكية والإسرائيلية والسعودية في الشرق الأوسط، واستمرار الدعم الذي تقدمه طهران للميليشيات المسلحة في المنطقة، وفي مقدمتها حزب الله اللبناني.

 

والمسار البديل الذي يفضله بعض المحافظين في إيران يتمثل في تعزيز العلاقات الاقتصادية والدبلوماسية مع روسيا على حساب الاستقلال الكامل عن الغرب.

 

ولذا فإن انتخابات اليوم من الممكن أن تقرر أجندة طهران، ليس فقط لأربع سنوات مقبلة، بل خلال العقد المقبل وما بعده. فبرغم أن انتصار روحاني متوقع، فإن فوز المرشح المحافظ إبراهيم رئيسي ممكن وربما يعيد رسم خارطة السياسة المحلية والعلاقات الاقتصادية والدولية لإيران.

 

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